Odds of Dying in a Car Accident: 1 in 101 Over a Lifetime
Reference Guide
The National Safety Council puts the lifetime odds of dying in a motor-vehicle crash at 1 in 101, based on 2024 deaths — roughly 1 in 8,000 in any single year. Federal crash data counted 39,254 traffic deaths in 2024, and NHTSA's early estimate for 2025 is lower. These are national averages, not a personal forecast. No lawsuit, settlement or claim form is attached to these numbers.
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What the Odds Actually Mean
The odds of dying in a car accident are calculated, not guessed. For its 2024-data table, the National Safety Council divides the U.S. population (340,110,989) by the number of deaths from a cause to get the one-year odds, then divides that by the life expectancy of a person born in 2024 (79.0 years) to get the lifetime odds. For a motor-vehicle crash the lifetime result is 1 in 101.
Run the method backwards and the odds of dying in a car accident per year come out at roughly 1 in 8,000 (our arithmetic: 1 in 101 × 79.0). Federal crash data points the same way: IIHS reports 11.5 deaths per 100,000 people in 2024, about 1 in 8,700.
NSC itself says the figures “are statistical averages over the whole U.S. population” and do not describe any one person. Where you live and drive, and what you do, move your own number.
Case details
Three public sources do the counting. NSC Injury Facts builds its odds from National Center for Health Statistics mortality data for 2024, with population and life expectancy from the U.S. Census Bureau (NSC odds of dying table). NHTSA's Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) counts people who died in motor vehicle traffic crashes; its newest national estimate is report DOT HS 813 800, published April 2026 (NHTSA 2025 early estimate). IIHS Fatality Facts 2024, posted June 2026, turns FARS data into rates for each state (IIHS state by state).
Because NSC works from national mortality records and FARS from traffic-crash data, their totals are not identical. Compare odds with odds and rates with rates.
Latest Figures, as of October 2026
NHTSA's early estimate for 2025, published in April 2026, is 36,640 deaths, a decrease of about 6.7 percent, at 1.10 per 100 million miles — while miles driven rose about 0.9 percent. NHTSA calls that the second lowest rate in recorded history, behind 1.08 in 2014, and says the fourth quarter of 2025 was the 15th consecutive quarterly decline.
Both counts are provisional. NHTSA says they will be slightly revised when the final 2024 file and the 2025 annual file are released, which it expects in early 2027.
Where You Drive Changes the Odds
National odds hide a wide spread. In IIHS's 2024 state table, deaths per 100,000 people ranged from 4.7 in Rhode Island (about 1 in 21,000 a year) to 25.6 in Mississippi (about 1 in 3,900). Per mile driven, the range ran from 0.59 in Massachusetts to 1.81 in Mississippi.
Three states we cover in detail: Wyoming recorded 107 deaths, 18.2 per 100,000 (Wyoming car accidents); Wisconsin 595 deaths, 10.0 per 100,000 (Wisconsin car accidents); Kansas, home to Wichita, 339 deaths, 11.4 per 100,000 (Wichita car accidents). Alcohol is its own factor — our state-by-state analysis of drinking-driver crash deaths covers it.
Who dies varies too. Of the 39,254 deaths in 2024, IIHS counts 11,769 car occupants, 10,682 pickup and SUV occupants, 6,228 motorcyclists, 7,080 pedestrians and 1,075 bicyclists. 52% died in single-vehicle crashes.
If Someone You Love Died in a Crash
Our wrongful death settlement calculator explains the factors that drive those cases. If the person was walking, see the pedestrian accident guide.
U.S. Car Crash Deaths: The Recent Record
2014 — The Lowest Rate on Record
NHTSA counts 32,744 traffic deaths at 1.08 per 100 million vehicle miles — the lowest rate since its records begin in 1975.
2021 — The Pandemic-Era Peak
Deaths reach 43,230, up 10.8 percent from the year before, per NHTSA's table.
2023 — 41,025 Deaths
Deaths fall 4.0 percent, part of a quarterly decline that began in the second quarter of 2022.
2024 — 39,254 Deaths, 1.19 per 100 Million Miles
That is 11.5 deaths per 100,000 people. NSC's lifetime odds of dying in a car crash, based on this year: 1 in 101.
April 2026 — The 2025 Early Estimate
NHTSA projects 36,640 deaths and a rate of 1.10, about 6.7 percent fewer deaths while miles driven rose about 0.9 percent.
Early 2027 — Revised Counts Expected
As of October 2026, NHTSA says the 2024 and 2025 counts will be slightly revised when the final 2024 file and the 2025 annual file are released, expected in early 2027.
Three Things to Watch For
People search these numbers at the worst moment of their lives, and that attracts more than statisticians:
“Free case review” boxes on statistics pages
Many pages ranking for this search are law-firm marketing that collects your phone number. The odds themselves come from NSC, NHTSA and IIHS, which publish them free and ask for nothing.
A fast offer and a release to sign
An early insurance offer to a grieving family can arrive before anyone knows the full losses. A signed release can end the claim for good — read it, and get advice, before signing anything on the first call.
Cash now against a wrongful-death claim
Lenders advance money in exchange for part of a future settlement, and the cost can grow while the case runs. Read how the fees accrue before you sign — see our guide to car accident loans.
Odds of Dying in a Car Crash — Questions People Ask
Short answers to the questions people ask most about this case.
What are the odds of dying in a car accident per year?
Roughly 1 in 8,000 for the average American, using NSC's 2024-data method (lifetime odds of 1 in 101 multiplied by a 79.0-year life expectancy — our arithmetic). The FARS-based rate of 11.5 deaths per 100,000 people in 2024 works out to about 1 in 8,700. Both are averages across everyone, drivers or not.
What are the chances of dying in a car accident over a lifetime?
1 in 101, according to NSC Injury Facts, based on 2024 deaths. In the same table a fall is 1 in 89 and an accidental opioid overdose 1 in 84 — both slightly more likely than a motor-vehicle crash.
What are the most common causes of death in the United States?
In NSC's lifetime-odds table for 2024, heart disease (1 in 6) and cancer (1 in 7) lead, followed by stroke (1 in 26). All preventable causes combined come to 1 in 22. Motor-vehicle crashes sit at 1 in 101.
Are the odds of dying in a plane crash lower?
NSC reports too few airplane-passenger deaths in 2024 to calculate odds at all — it does not compute odds from fewer than 20 deaths. The same is true for railway passengers and for lightning.
What are the odds of getting hit by a car while walking?
NSC puts the lifetime odds of dying in a pedestrian incident at 1 in 492 (2024 data). IIHS counts 7,080 pedestrian deaths in 2024, 18% of all motor vehicle crash deaths; in the District of Columbia the share was 38%.
Which state has the highest odds of dying in a car crash?
Mississippi, on both measures in IIHS's 2024 data: 25.6 deaths per 100,000 people and 1.81 per 100 million miles. Rhode Island had the lowest per-person rate (4.7) and Massachusetts the lowest per-mile rate (0.59).
Why do NSC and NHTSA numbers differ?
They count from different systems. NSC uses national mortality data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics; NHTSA's FARS counts deaths in motor vehicle traffic crashes. Use NSC to compare crashes with other causes of death, and FARS-based rates for trends and state comparisons.
Is there a lawsuit or settlement tied to these statistics?
No. There is no settlement, fund or claim form. Families who lost someone in a crash pursue individual insurance or wrongful-death claims, and filing deadlines depend on the state.
About This Information
Editorially Reviewed — Content reviewed for accuracy using published legal research, government data, and verified court records. See our methodology. Reviewed by Leonard Goldberg, Editor · Last updated - $236 billion in real payouts analyzed · See what we found
This page is for general information only and is not legal advice. Lawsuit status, eligibility, and compensation can change. Settlement Insight is not a law firm and does not represent any party. Consult a licensed attorney about your specific situation.
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